411 Fantasy Sports

There it is…sitting there…staring at you, laughing. Jason Campbell for Calvin Johnson in a keeper league? Frustration sets in while you glance at the “Vote Against Trade” button. You click and then the debate begins to cloud your league forum. Each side giving their reasons for the trade and other’s chiming in with their opinions as to why the trade should be axed. It is a fantasy discussion that every fantasy player is confronted with at some point in time.

My belief is that a trade should not be vetoed unless it is a case of obvious collusion and I repeat, it must be obvious.

The reason for this is due to what I call subjective values of players. A players value can be influenced by 3 key factors:

1. Depth of position

2. Team need

3. Players like/dislike of a player

Most people trade based on one or more of these key factors which causes players to be valued differently by fantasy players. Is the 2007 Mike Lowell that valuable when the fantasy player already owns David Wright? Not really, yet I saw a Lowell for Capps trade vetoed because owners believed that Lowell was worth more. True, Lowell was worth more but the trader needed a closer. So while Lowell was worth more, the tradee’s team was actually getting better.

Also players tend to vote their self interest. This is just human nature in play.  I have done it and so will others. If a good team in the league has quite a bit of depth and makes a trade to get better then it could lead fantasy owners to veto the trade. This happens often.  I have voted this way and I have been vetoed this way. It is hard to not have a bias.

While most would actually agree with this idea, there is still a scenario that all have scene:  The really, really bad trade. The really, really bad trade is a trade like this: LaDanian Tomlinson for Trent Green in  week 2 of the fantasy season.  A beginner makes this trade based on the stats of the first week. Trent Green throws 3 touchdowns and LT only runs for 27 yards, therefore Trent Green must be better than LT…right? A scenario like this frustrates other owners because the deal is incredibly lopsided and a team is getting better without giving away anything. However, it would not fall under collusion, it would fall under stupidity.

Should a trade be vetoed because of stupidity? The answer to that is yes.  If you allow a beginner to play in fantasy sports he should be guarded from the sharks.  The way to avoid this situation is to make sure that you school the beginner before the draft or only play with experienced drafters.

In Conclusion, I would suggest a fair commissioner review trade policy. A fair commish that allows every trade except for those that are extremely lopsided.  Also if you are involved in a keeper/dynasty league, then do not allow beginners to play as they can mess things up in a hurry.  In the end remember that it is just a game and have fun with it.

“What! That was a stupid pick” some elitist fantasy football owner quips at you, “You could have drafted a good Quarterback in the 3rd round!” That is the typical ideology that many fantasy football players have. They sit tight and draft RB, RB in the first two rounds. It has been the same strategy for the last 15 years in fantasy football. Their reasoning: Running Backs have more value. So every fantasy owner sits with legal pad in hand and waits for their scripted pick. The first 2 round typically go as planned and everyone has similar cheat sheets with similar rankings. “Adrian Peterson!” “L.T!” “Steven Jackson!” “Frank Gore!” “Joseph Addai!” “Tom Brady!” “…..what? a Quarterback, that’s stupid.”

The hecklers then all sit and stare at your apparent idiocy. God forbid someone stray off the Running Back Brick Road and draft a guy that posted 50 TDs and 4800 yards last season…what lunacy! Tom Brady outscored every fantasy player last year by over 100 points in most leagues. The second place finisher was Tony Romo. In fact the only running back that finished the year in the top 5 of most leagues was LaDanian Tomlinson, unless your league gave points for receptions then Brian Westbrook would have also been in the top 5. After that there was a noticeable dip in Running Back production.
This is due to the change in times of the NFL. Gone are the days of featured backs like Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas, and Marcus Allen. Now 80% of NFL teams use a Running Back by Committee (RBBC) system. There are only a handful of featured backs left: LaDanian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Larry Johnson are really the only featured backs left in the NFL.

Secondly, The running back position is a war of attrition. Last year here were a few of the backs that disappointed due to injury: Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson, Cadillac Williams, Ahman Green, Reggie Bush, Deuce McCallister, Ronnie Brown and Brandon Jacobs. All of these men were 1st and 2nd round selections. Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson and Rudi Johnson were top 5 picks in some leagues. This happens every single year with running backs. Two years ago Shaun Alexander was one of the elite that went down with a serious injury. In their place or out of nowhere guys like Ryan Grant and Earnest Graham emerged. Not to mention that Bradshaw, Ward, and Fargas were productive waiver wire pickups during injury weeks. The elite Quarterbacks do not carry the same risk a Running Back does. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have not missed a start in seasons and everyone knows how durable Bret Favre was during his career. How many seasons will end if L.T tears an ACL the first week out?

Thirdly, The offensive schemes have changed. Many teams run a spread offense and pass the ball much, much more than in the past. The ideal NFL QB 10 years ago threw the ball 20-30 times, some not even that. In the modern era of football guys like Brady, Manning, Romo, and Brees throw the ball close to 50 times a game. It used to be that the running game set up the passing game, but now the opposite is true. The passing game sets up the running game.

Finally, there is one unknown element that we don’t know about yet and that is the effects of the defense wearing an ear piece. This may make defenses quicker when making adjustments before the snap, but like I said it is an unknown.

I think I have shown sufficient reasons for drafting a guy like Tom Brady or Peyton Manning in the first round and even in the top 3. Perhaps you disagree, which is fine, but I don’t think you can say that the argument is not there. So loosen up and understand that fantasy football is just a game.